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Lesson 18: Wishlist Goal Model and Demo Week Capacity Planning

Most indie launch plans fail for one simple reason: teams track big outcome goals but skip the weekly workload model that makes those goals realistic.

This lesson gives you a compact system to connect wishlist targets, campaign assumptions, and demo-week team capacity so you can decide what to ship, what to cut, and what to measure.

What You Will Learn

  • How to translate launch outcomes into concrete wishlist targets
  • How to create a simple conversion and confidence model
  • How to plan demo-week capacity around team constraints
  • How to set weekly review checkpoints before release windows

Step 1 - Define one launch scenario and one stretch scenario

Start with two targets:

  1. Base scenario (minimum viable launch confidence)
  2. Stretch scenario (best realistic upside if campaign execution is strong)

Keep both scenarios tied to one release window and one platform context. Do not mix assumptions across storefronts yet.

Example framing:

  • Base: X wishlists before launch week
  • Stretch: Y wishlists before launch week
  • Review cadence: weekly through demo week, then daily during launch window

This prevents "vague growth" planning and gives the team concrete thresholds.

Step 2 - Build a lightweight wishlist goal model

Create one table with:

  1. current wishlist baseline
  2. weekly net wishlist target
  3. expected channel contribution (store visibility, creator outreach, socials, demo traffic)
  4. confidence score per channel (high, medium, low)

Keep assumptions explicit. If one channel underperforms, you should immediately know which backup action replaces it.

Practical model template

Use a compact version:

  • Baseline wishlists
  • Target at launch week
  • Gap to close
  • Weeks remaining
  • Required net per week
  • Top 3 acquisition actions

If required weekly net is above what your team has ever achieved, reduce scope or extend timeline before spending more energy.

Step 3 - Plan demo-week capacity as an operations sprint

Demo week often fails because the same two people own everything: builds, bug triage, creator requests, and social updates.

Create a capacity board with:

  1. Build lane (hotfix, packaging, storefront uploads)
  2. Comms lane (updates, replies, outreach follow-through)
  3. Insights lane (metrics snapshots, issue summaries, next-day priorities)

For each lane, assign:

  • primary owner
  • backup owner
  • max daily task load

This makes overload visible before the event starts.

Step 4 - Add cut rules for overload moments

When demo-week pressure rises, teams need predefined cuts.

Set clear cut rules:

  1. stop non-critical feature polish after day 1
  2. prioritize bug classes that block onboarding or payment flow
  3. defer low-impact content updates to post-demo follow-up

If you do not predefine cut rules, every urgent request looks equally important.

Step 5 - Create a weekly review loop before launch

Run one short review every week:

  1. compare actual wishlist delta vs planned delta
  2. check capacity burn against team limits
  3. decide one adjustment for next week
  4. document one risk and one mitigation

This creates a repeatable operating rhythm instead of one big panic review near release.

Mini Challenge

Build a one-page launch_wishlist_capacity_model.md that includes:

  1. base and stretch wishlist targets
  2. weekly net target math
  3. demo-week lane ownership
  4. overload cut rules
  5. next two weekly adjustments

Use this as your launch decision sheet for the next month.

Troubleshooting

"Our wishlist target keeps changing every week"

Separate target changes from execution changes. Only update targets when release assumptions change materially.

"We cannot hit required weekly wishlist growth"

Reduce scope or increase runway. Do not hide the gap with unrealistic conversion assumptions.

"Demo week burns out the team"

Lower daily task caps and enforce backup ownership. Capacity planning is a launch feature, not an admin task.

Pro Tips

  • Keep one source of truth for wishlist math and ownership.
  • Track net growth, not just gross adds.
  • Pair every growth goal with one team-capacity constraint.
  • Freeze metric definitions before demo week (for example, what counts as a qualified wishlist source) so reporting does not drift mid-campaign.

FAQ

Should we track daily wishlist targets before demo week?

Usually no. Weekly targets are more stable before event week; switch to daily tracking only when the campaign enters high-volatility launch windows.

What is the safest first cut when capacity breaks?

Cut non-critical polish and optional communication tasks first, while preserving build stability, onboarding bug fixes, and player-facing issue response.

Recap

You now have a practical model that ties wishlist targets to operational reality:

  • two scenario goals
  • weekly target math
  • demo-week lane ownership
  • cut rules and review cadence

Next Lesson Teaser

Next, you can run a focused pricing and discount experiment plan to align launch-week revenue decisions with your wishlist momentum.

Continue Learning

Bookmark this lesson and share it with your team before your next demo-week planning pass.