5-Night Post-October Fest Demo Retention Response Challenge - 2026

November D+2 after October Next Fest: #metrics still celebrates fest-week downloads. Support tickets mention "crashed at menu." Post-fest analytics listicle #2 filed post_fest_analytics_ok: true—but nobody ran a five-night response ladder when the uninstall curve started. Engineering wants to ship a hotfix; marketing wants a capsule refresh; the producer cannot answer "what changed since D+1?" without opening four tabs.

November 2026 first week needs retention response accountability, not post-fest hero threads. Branch unset #1 returned default; analytics tools #2 wired four lanes—this Challenges & Community Hooks sprint is the five-night retention ladder: ~20 minutes per evening D+1…D+5, gates R1–R5, file post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1.json, hashtag #PostOctoberRetention2026.

Direct answer: Five nights (~20 minutes each); gates R1–R5; artifacts under release-evidence/post-fest/retention-challenge-2026/; file post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1.json; set BUILD_RECEIPT post_fest_retention_ok: true when R5 passes.

Non-repetition note: October upload dress rehearsal owns pre-live upload R1–R5. February pager challenge owns live-week P1–P5. 5-day crash log challenge owns pre-fest weekday repro folders. Analytics listicle #2 owns T1–T6 tooling bookmark stack. This URL owns D+1…D+5 post-fest retention response with nightly one-metric cards and master receipt.

Pair branch unset #1, analytics tools #2, wishlist plateau cousin, forward blog #4 crash recovery case study, Course 302 forward.

Why this matters now (November 2026 post-October fest)

1. Downloads cliff D+1 — Fest traffic drops; teams that wait until November closeout lose fixable crashes.
2. Refund spikes need a ritual — Not a one-time CSV export; five nights catch drift.
3. Uninstall proxies need honest notes — Analytics #2 lanes active; challenge forces response not only logging.
4. Hotfix temptation — Forward #9 patch exception opinion needs receipt baseline first.
5. Public accountability — #PostOctoberRetention2026 catches skipped nights before forward #12 capstone.

Direct answer: Run the ladder when post_fest_analytics_ok is GREEN and branch unset upstream—produce one master retention receipt before jq weekly #7 and uninstall trend #5.

Who this challenge is for

Prerequisites: Branch unset #1 branch_unset_ok; analytics #2 post_fest_analytics_ok; post_fest_daily_export_2026.csv started.
Time: ~1.5–2 hours total over five nights.

Challenge vs cousin ladders (format ladder)

Order: Unset GREEN → analytics T6 GREEN → this 5-night ladder on D+1…D+5 → forward case study if R3 stays RED → weekly jq #7.

Rules of the challenge

1. One retention owner signs each night (night_N_owner in receipt).
2. Fail stops patch — RED R3 blocks post-fest hotfix until smoke reruns or forward #9 exception filed.
3. Twenty-minute cap — Ritual is one-metric card + stand-up post, not full incident marathon.
4. Post nightly with #PostOctoberRetention2026 including gate color + receipt path.
5. No invented uninstall % — Log honest proxy notes per analytics #2.
6. Capsule refresh waits until R5 GREEN unless documented YELLOW waiver in notes.
7. Producer reviews R5 capstone before forward #12 first-week capstone index.

Five-night calendar at a glance

Map nights to calendar days after your fest end date; keep gate order R1 → R5.

Before you start — readiness checklist

Create the evidence folder:

release-evidence/
  post-fest/
    retention-challenge-2026/
      README.md
      nightly-cards/
        night-1.md
        night-2.md
        ...
      crash-repro/
      receipts/
      archives/

Readiness checklist:

• [ ] branch_unset_ok: true on BUILD_RECEIPT
• [ ] post_fest_analytics_ok: true and post_fest_analytics_tools_receipt_v1.json exists
• [ ] post_fest_daily_export_2026.csv has D+1 row template
• [ ] refund_threshold_v1.json from analytics listicle exists
• [ ] jq installed for receipt verify
• [ ] Crash repro folder path chosen (cousin 5-day crash log structure OK)

Night 1 — R1 analytics baseline (~20 minutes)

Goal: Confirm upstream analytics receipt GREEN before retention response begins.

Steps

1. Open post_fest_analytics_tools_receipt_v1.json — verify post_fest_analytics_ok: true.
2. Append D+1 row to post_fest_daily_export_2026.csv (crosswalk lane).
3. Write nightly-cards/night-1.md with downloads snapshot + build_id.
4. Post #PostOctoberRetention2026:
   • R1 GREEN/YELLOW/RED
   • analytics receipt path
   • build_id under measurement

Stand-up script (paste and edit)

## #PostOctoberRetention2026 — Night 1 (R1)
Analytics baseline: GREEN
build_id: 2026-11-01-trunk01
Receipt: release-evidence/analytics/post_fest_analytics_tools_receipt_v1.json
Next: Night 2 refund one-metric card

Pass criteria for R1

• post_fest_analytics_ok true on BUILD_RECEIPT.
• D+1 crosswalk row exists in daily export CSV.

Night 2 — R2 refund one-metric card (~20 minutes)

Goal: Log refund rate against threshold—one number, one decision.

Steps

1. Export Steamworks Sales & Activations for D+1…D+2 (or use cached export from analytics setup).
2. Compute refund_rate_pct; compare to refund_threshold_v1.json.
3. Write nightly-cards/night-2.md with rate + RED/YELLOW/GREEN vs threshold.
4. If YELLOW/RED: create crash-repro/D+2/ folder placeholder—even if empty, path must exist.
5. Post #PostOctoberRetention2026 with R2 status and rate (no player PII).

Pass criteria for R2

• Refund rate logged on daily export CSV refunds row.
• Threshold comparison documented in night-2 card.

Night 3 — R3 crash triage + smoke (~20 minutes + smoke time)

Goal: Tie uninstall proxy notes to reproducible crash evidence or clean smoke.

Steps

1. Review support tickets + uninstall notes from analytics dashboard uninstalls-01.
2. Run installed smoke on trunk build_id (boot to first interactive screen).
3. If crash reproduced: save logs under crash-repro/D+3/ with repro_steps.md.
4. File demo_smoke_receipt_v1.json or update night card with smoke_clean: true/false.
5. Post #PostOctoberRetention2026 with R3 status—if RED, link repro folder path.

Pass criteria for R3

• Smoke receipt or night card documents pass/fail honestly.
• RED triggers pause on post-fest patch until forward #4 case study path or fix merged.

Night 4 — R4 retention action logged (~20 minutes)

Goal: Record what the team did about signals—not only what metrics said.

Steps

1. Decide one action: hotfix branch, config toggle, FAQ/store copy fix, community recap, or defer with reason.
2. If hotfix: reference forward #9 PATCH exception schema in notes—do not ship without numbered row.
3. If defer: document why (e.g. "refund YELLOW but smoke GREEN—watch D+5").
4. Update nightly-cards/night-4.md with retention_action field.
5. Post #PostOctoberRetention2026 with R4 action summary (no hype—receipt language).

Pass criteria for R4

• retention_action_logged: true in night-4 card JSON or markdown frontmatter.
• Deferrals include owner + revisit night (usually N5).

Night 5 — R5 capstone receipt + BUILD_RECEIPT latch (~20 minutes)

Goal: File master challenge receipt and set retention latch before forward #7 jq weekly.

Steps

1. Generate post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1.json under receipts/.
2. Update BUILD_RECEIPT post_fest_retention_ok: true.
3. Run verify_post_fest_retention_challenge.sh (below).
4. Post #PostOctoberRetention2026 R5 GREEN with master receipt path.
5. Schedule forward #5 uninstall trend read if wishlist/refund lanes still YELLOW.

BUILD_RECEIPT latch snippet

{
  "post_fest_retention_ok": true,
  "post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt": "release-evidence/post-fest/retention-challenge-2026/receipts/post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1.json"
}

post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1.json template

{
  "schema": "post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1",
  "fest_window": "2026-10-next-fest-live",
  "post_fest_week": "2026-11-first-week",
  "hashtag": "#PostOctoberRetention2026",
  "build_id": "2026-11-01-trunk01",
  "analytics_receipt_path": "release-evidence/analytics/post_fest_analytics_tools_receipt_v1.json",
  "evidence_dir": "release-evidence/post-fest/retention-challenge-2026/",
  "nights": [
    {"night": 1, "gate": "R1", "owner": "REPLACE_ME", "pass": true},
    {"night": 2, "gate": "R2", "owner": "REPLACE_ME", "pass": true},
    {"night": 3, "gate": "R3", "owner": "REPLACE_ME", "pass": true},
    {"night": 4, "gate": "R4", "owner": "REPLACE_ME", "pass": true},
    {"night": 5, "gate": "R5", "owner": "REPLACE_ME", "pass": true}
  ],
  "nightly_metrics": {
    "D+1_downloads_note": "",
    "D+2_refund_rate_pct": 0.0,
    "D+3_smoke_clean": true,
    "D+4_retention_action": ""
  },
  "notes": "",
  "post_fest_retention_ok": true
}

verify_post_fest_retention_challenge.sh

#!/usr/bin/env bash
set -euo pipefail
REC="${1:-release-evidence/post-fest/retention-challenge-2026/receipts/post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1.json}"

jq -e '.schema == "post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1"' "$REC" >/dev/null
jq -e '.nights | length == 5' "$REC" >/dev/null
jq -e '[.nights[].pass] | all' "$REC" >/dev/null
jq -e '.post_fest_retention_ok == true' "$REC" >/dev/null
ANALYTICS="$(jq -r '.analytics_receipt_path' "$REC")"
test -f "$ANALYTICS"
jq -e '.post_fest_analytics_ok == true' "$ANALYTICS" >/dev/null

echo "post_fest_retention_challenge verify: OK"

Gates R1–R5 summary (beginner)

One-metric card template (all nights)

Store in nightly-cards/NIGHT_N_TEMPLATE.md:

# Post-fest retention — Night N (Gate R_N)
Date UTC: __________
Owner: __________
build_id: __________

| Metric | Value | vs threshold | Color |
|--------|-------|--------------|-------|
| Downloads note | | n/a | |
| Refund rate % | | warn/stop | |
| Smoke clean | yes/no | | |
| Uninstall proxy notes | | | |

Action tonight: __________
Receipt path: __________
#PostOctoberRetention2026

Proof table (what GREEN means)

Integration with November cluster

Scenarios A–G

A — Analytics T6 not filed before D+1

R1 RED—complete analytics listicle stack first.

B — Refund RED night 2 but smoke GREEN

R2 YELLOW/RED; R3 may still GREEN—R4 action might be FAQ/store copy not hotfix.

C — Smoke RED night 3

Pause challenge progression; pair forward #4 recovery narrative; do not set R5 ok until R3 re-run passes.

D — Team wants capsule refresh night 4

Defer in R4 card until R5 unless analytics wishlist lane documents plateau per plateau playbook.

E — Solo dev skips public hashtag

Allowed if internal stand-up log replaces post—document public_post_skipped: true in receipt notes.

F — Multi-SKU demo + full game

Split nightly cards per app_id; one master receipt with skus[] array—do not blend refund rates.

G — Publisher asks for five-night zip

Attach master receipt + nightly cards + crash-repro paths—redact player identifiers.

Common mistakes

• Starting challenge before branch_unset_ok and post_fest_analytics_ok.
• Logging fest-week downloads on D+5 instead of post-fest daily exports.
• Shipping hotfix on R3 RED without forward #9 exception list.
• Inventing uninstall percentages in hashtag posts.
• Skipping R4 "action" night because metrics "look fine."
• Treating challenge as substitute for forward #7 weekly jq—R5 precedes jq, not replaces it.

RED / YELLOW / GREEN routing

Enterprise and ops notes

• Incident ownership: Name night_N_owner for audit—not only "#general" thread.
• Data minimization: Refund posts use rates, not order IDs.
• Change control: R4 hotfix ties to BUILD_RECEIPT build_id bump row in daily export.

Printable facilitator card

Pin in release-evidence/post-fest/retention-challenge-2026/README.md:

# #PostOctoberRetention2026 — Night _N_ (Gate R_N)
Date: __________  build_id: __________  owner: __________

[ ] Upstream analytics ok (R1 prerequisite)
[ ] One-metric card filed under nightly-cards/
[ ] Gate R_N checklist done
[ ] Crash-repro path updated if R3
[ ] Night posted OR public_post_skipped documented
[ ] Master receipt path ready for R5

Sign: __________  UTC: __________

Key takeaways

1. Post-fest retention needs five nights — not one analytics export and silence.
2. Gates R1–R5 run on post_fest_retention_challenge_receipt_v1.json with nightly one-metric cards.
3. Latch post_fest_retention_ok: true only after analytics upstream GREEN and all nights pass.
4. R3 smoke + repro folder is the hard gate before post-fest hotfix culture wins.
5. Pair analytics #2 for T1–T6 tooling—this challenge consumes it in R1.
6. Pair branch unset #1 for branch truth before metrics attribution.
7. Forward #4 case study when R3 stays RED without quick fix.
8. Forward #7 jq weekly runs after R5 GREEN—not in parallel without waiver.
9. Hashtag #PostOctoberRetention2026 is optional accountability—not a marketing campaign.
10. Forward #12 capstone indexes post_fest_retention_ok in child receipt crosswalk.
11. After R5 GREEN, file uninstall curve trend playbook #5 (G1–G6) before November sprint store edits—R2/R4 nights reference uninstall_curve_class_v1.json.
12. After curve + badge-strip cousins GREEN, run jq weekly retention #7 (J1–J6, post_october_retention_weekly_ok) each Monday—R5 is point latch, not weekly truth.

FAQ

Can I run this during fest live week?

No—this ladder is D+1…D+5 after fest ends. Live week uses February pager cousin format.

What if I only have three engineers?

Twenty-minute cap still applies—one owner per night can rotate; all five nights required for R5.

Do I need exact uninstall rates?

No—use proxy notes per analytics #2; do not invent percentages in posts.

How does this relate to the crash recovery case study?

Forward #4 is the deep recovery narrative when R3 RED persists—challenge is the five-night accountability shell.

Can I skip hashtag posts?

Yes with public_post_skipped: true in receipt notes—internal stand-up log must still exist.

Related reads

• 14 Free Post-October Fest Steam Analytics Refund and Demo Uninstall Tools
• Your First SteamFest Branch Unset and Default Branch Return Receipt After October Live
• Post-Next-Fest Wishlist Plateau Diagnostic Playbook
• 5-Day Demo Crash Log Challenge Before Next Fest
• 5-Night October Next Fest Upload Dress Rehearsal Challenge
• We Recovered Steam Demo Crash Rate Spike After October Fest — cluster #4
• November 2026 Post-October Fest Uninstall Curve Trend Playbook — cluster #5; file after R5 when D+7 proxy notes plateau
• jq Gate Sketch for post_october_fest_retention Weekly Demo Row Diff — cluster #7; J1–J6 weekly row diff after R5 GREEN
• 25 Free Live-Ops Analytics Tools Indie Games 2026 Edition
• Official docs: Steamworks Sales Reports

Closing

The first five nights after October fest are when downloads cliff, refunds spike, and crash reports arrive—whether the team has a ladder for them or only a fading #fest-live thread. Run gates R1–R5, file one master receipt, and let post_fest_retention_ok mean you responded on purpose—not that you hoped players would stay. When forward weekly jq reads a green latch backed by five nightly cards, November sprint stops being retention theater and becomes evidence you can grep.