November 2026 Post-October Fest Uninstall Curve - What Changed for Micro-Studios Trend Playbook

November D+7 after October Next Fest: #metrics still shows fest-week download totals. Post-fest analytics listicle #2 logged post_fest_analytics_ok: true with uninstall proxy notes YELLOW on D+2—but leadership reads the D+7 curve as "players hate the demo" and orders a scope rewrite before anyone files a keep / archive / rewrite table. Discovery labels shifted when fest stickers dropped. Crash recovery case study #4 fixed menu crashes—yet uninstall notes stayed elevated because the store still promised a vertical slice the hour-one funnel never delivered.

November 2026 is when Steam demo uninstall reporting proxies and discovery label changes reshape D+7 retention math—not when micro-studios should panic-rewrite scope from a plateau that is structurally normal after fest traffic cliffs. This Trend-Jacking / News Commentary playbook answers what changed in post-October fest uninstall curves, how to separate scope lies from healthy decay, and how to file post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1.json with gates G1–G6 before first-week capstone forward #12 latches november_sprint_allowed.

Pair June aftermath cousin, analytics #2, retention challenge #3, wishlist plateau cousin, forward #6 badge-strip art / #12 capstone.

Non-repetition note: June aftermath owns June→October transfer with june_next_fest_aftermath_receipt_v1.json. Analytics listicle #2 owns four-lane tooling T1–T6. Wishlist plateau owns wishlist flatline diagnosis. Retention challenge #3 owns five-night R1–R5 accountability. This URL owns D+7 uninstall curve trend interpretation + scope keep/archive/rewrite filter G1–G6.

Why this matters now (November 2026 post-October fest)

1. Fest sticker drop changes discovery — Store labels and event hubs vanish; traffic shape shifts D+3…D+7.
2. Uninstall proxies spike early — Honest teams track notes, not invented Steam uninstall %.
3. Plateau misread as failure — Leadership orders rewrites when curve is expected decay.
4. Scope promises drive uninstalls — "Full game preview" copy with tutorial-only build.
5. Capstone needs curve receipt — Forward #12 child crosswalk expects post_october_uninstall_curve_ok.

Direct answer: Run gates G1–G6, complete keep / archive / rewrite filter for demo scope vs uninstall signals, file post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1.json, latch post_october_uninstall_curve_ok: true only when curve class is documented—not when someone feels bad about D+7 downloads.

Who should read this

Time: ~45 minutes read; ~2 hours first uninstall curve receipt sprint.

Format ladder (November first-week cluster)

Order: unset → analytics → retention nights → crash recovery if needed → this curve playbook → badge-strip #6 → jq weekly #7 → capstone #12.

What changed vs a "normal" post-fest week (qualitative)

Patterns from November 2026 partner threads and first-week post-mortems—no invented uninstall percentages:

Micro-studios that treated D+7 as "demo failed" entered November sprint rewriting store copy while crash recovery #4 already fixed trunk smoke. Studios that filed post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1.json entered capstone knowing whether to KEEP scope, ARCHIVE fest-only promises, or REWRITE one-liner honestly.

Beginner path — keep / archive / rewrite filter (scope vs uninstall)

Copy into release-evidence/post-fest/uninstall-curve-2026/keep-archive-rewrite-scope-2026.md:

# November 2026 uninstall curve — scope filter

| Surface | Decision | Uninstall link | Owner |
|---------|----------|----------------|-------|
| Demo scope one-liner | KEEP / ARCHIVE / REWRITE | | |
| Store "vertical slice" claim | KEEP / ARCHIVE / REWRITE | | |
| Hour-one funnel promise | KEEP / ARCHIVE / REWRITE | | |
| Fest FAQ top 5 | KEEP / ARCHIVE / REWRITE | | |
| Tutorial-only reality | KEEP / ARCHIVE / REWRITE | | |
| Capsule subtitle | KEEP / ARCHIVE / REWRITE | | |
| Creator pitch paragraph | KEEP / ARCHIVE / REWRITE | | |
| Known-issues blurb | KEEP / ARCHIVE / REWRITE | | |
| Discovery event tags | ARCHIVE | fest-only | |
| Post-fest patch notes | KEEP / REWRITE | | |

Plain language:

Beginner three locks before scope rewrite:

1. File curve class first (G4)—expected_decay vs scope_mismatch vs stability_issue.
2. Check crash recovery — If C6 GREEN, do not blame uninstalls on binary without repro.
3. REWRITE only public surfaces — ARCHIVE fest FAQ; do not delete diligence history.

Developer path — gates G1–G6 (uninstall curve)

These G gates belong to post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1—not June aftermath G1–G6. Same letter prefix, different schema and window.

G1 — Upstream analytics latch

Goal: Curve interpretation sits on honest analytics T1–T6—not orphan Discord notes.

Steps

1. Verify branch_unset_ok and post_fest_analytics_ok on BUILD_RECEIPT.
2. Confirm dashboard uninstalls-01 row status: active with D+2…D+7 notes.
3. If T6 not GREEN, finish analytics listicle before G1 pass.

Pass criteria for G1

• Uninstall lane active with same build_id as retention challenge R1 baseline.

G2 — Daily export uninstall proxy trail

Goal: Seven-day note trail—no single-day panic.

Steps

1. Export or copy post_fest_daily_export_2026.csv uninstall rows.
2. Each row: date, lane=uninstalls, metric=demo_uninstall_notes, status, build_id, owner, notes.
3. Tag notes: crash, scope, discovery, unknown—honest qualitative tags only.

Sample rows

date,lane,metric,status,build_id,owner,severity,notes
2026-11-04,uninstalls,demo_uninstall_notes,elevated,2026-11-05-trunk02,eng@studio,YELLOW,post-crash-fix menu OK; tutorial drop-off
2026-11-07,uninstalls,demo_uninstall_notes,plateau,2026-11-05-trunk02,prod@studio,YELLOW,expected_decay after sticker drop

Pass criteria for G2

• ≥5 daily uninstall proxy rows across D+1…D+7; no invented percentages in CSV.

G3 — Scope filter table

Goal: Separate copy lies from curve shape.

Steps

1. Complete keep/archive/rewrite table (beginner template).
2. For each REWRITE row, link to uninstall note tag scope if applicable.
3. For each KEEP row, document hour-one funnel evidence path (screenshot or smoke log).

Pass criteria for G3

• ≥8 surfaces decided; every REWRITE has owner + target date before November sprint store edit.

G4 — Uninstall curve class

Goal: Name the curve—stop debating vibes in stand-up.

uninstall_curve_class_v1.json

{
  "schema": "uninstall_curve_class_v1",
  "fest_end_utc": "2026-11-03T06:00:00Z",
  "evaluation_window": "D+1..D+7",
  "build_id": "2026-11-05-trunk02",
  "curve_class": "expected_decay",
  "evidence": {
    "analytics_dashboard": "release-evidence/post-fest/analytics/post_fest_analytics_dashboard_v1.json",
    "daily_export_csv": "release-evidence/post-fest/analytics/post_fest_daily_export_2026.csv",
    "crash_recovery_ok": true,
    "scope_rewrite_required": false
  },
  "discovery_label_shift_noted": true,
  "notes": "Sticker drop D+3; proxy notes plateau D+6–D+7; no scope REWRITE rows"
}

Curve class decision tree

Uninstall proxies elevated D+2+?
├─ No → curve_class: expected_decay (document anyway)
└─ Yes → crash_recovery_ok false?
    ├─ Yes → stability_issue → pair case study #4
    └─ No → scope REWRITE rows > 0?
        ├─ Yes → scope_mismatch
        └─ No → discovery_label_shift_noted?
            ├─ Yes → expected_decay (fest traffic cliff)
            └─ No → mixed (document both tags in notes)

Pass criteria for G4

• curve_class set with evidence paths—not empty string.

G5 — Master receipt

{
  "schema": "post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1",
  "post_fest_week": "2026-11-first-week",
  "build_id": "2026-11-05-trunk02",
  "curve_class_path": "release-evidence/post-fest/uninstall-curve-2026/uninstall_curve_class_v1.json",
  "scope_filter_md": "release-evidence/post-fest/uninstall-curve-2026/keep-archive-rewrite-scope-2026.md",
  "analytics_receipt_path": "release-evidence/post-fest/analytics/receipts/post_fest_analytics_tools_receipt_v1.json",
  "gates": {
    "G1": true,
    "G2": true,
    "G3": true,
    "G4": true,
    "G5": true,
    "G6": true
  },
  "post_october_uninstall_curve_ok": true,
  "feeds_capstone": "friday-post-october-fest-first-week-capstone-build-receipt-row-review-ten-minutes-before-november-sprint-2026",
  "notes": ""
}

G6 — BUILD_RECEIPT latch + verify script

{
  "post_october_uninstall_curve_ok": true,
  "post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_path": "release-evidence/post-fest/uninstall-curve-2026/receipts/post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1.json"
}

verify_post_october_uninstall_curve.sh

#!/usr/bin/env bash
set -euo pipefail
R="${1:-release-evidence/post-fest/uninstall-curve-2026/receipts/post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1.json}"
CLASS="${2:-release-evidence/post-fest/uninstall-curve-2026/uninstall_curve_class_v1.json}"

jq -e '.schema == "post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1"' "$R" >/dev/null
jq -e '.schema == "uninstall_curve_class_v1"' "$CLASS" >/dev/null
jq -e '.gates.G1 and .gates.G2 and .gates.G3 and .gates.G4 and .gates.G5 and .gates.G6' "$R" >/dev/null
jq -e '.post_october_uninstall_curve_ok == true' "$R" >/dev/null
jq -e '.curve_class != ""' "$CLASS" >/dev/null
test -f "$(jq -r '.scope_filter_md' "$R")"
echo "post_october_uninstall_curve verify: OK"

Pass criteria for G6

• Verify script exit 0; curve_class not stability_issue with open crash recovery RED.

Discovery label shift checklist (November 2026)

Log discovery_label_shift_noted: true in G4 when fest stickers dropped and proxy notes mention "less traffic" without crash tags.

Pairing with analytics and retention (do not merge receipts)

Worked example — D+7 stand-up (synthetic)

Outcome: REWRITE FAQ + subtitle only; demo scope KEEP; capstone #12 can index curve receipt.

Scenarios A–G

A — Crash recovery RED, uninstalls elevated

Curve class stability_issue—finish C1–C6 before scope REWRITE.

B — Refunds RED, uninstalls plateau

Refund lane owns triage; curve class may still be expected_decay—do not merge lanes.

C — Wishlist flat, uninstalls elevated

Run plateau playbook in parallel—different diagnosis.

D — No uninstall rows in CSV

G2 RED—return to analytics #2 T3 habit.

E — Leadership demands November sprint day one

G4 + G3 required before capstone #12.

F — Invented uninstall %

Forbidden—use proxy notes only; verify script does not check fake percentages.

G — Partner diligence zip

Attach G4 class JSON + scope table + analytics receipt—redact player IDs.

RED / YELLOW / GREEN routing

Facilitator stand-up script (fifteen minutes)

## Uninstall curve stand-up — D+7
- G1: post_fest_analytics_ok + uninstall lane active (Y/N)
- G2: D+1..D+7 proxy rows filed ({n}/7)
- G3: KEEP {a} / ARCHIVE {b} / REWRITE {c}
- G4: curve_class = {expected_decay | scope_mismatch | stability_issue | mixed}
- Crash recovery latch: {GREEN | RED | N/A}
- Block November sprint store edit? {Y if REWRITE open or stability_issue}

Common mistakes

• Rewriting demo scope from D+7 plateau without G4 curve class.
• Inventing Steam uninstall percentages in BUILD_RECEIPT.
• Skipping G3 scope table—treating all uninstalls as engineering failure.
• Merging June aftermath receipt schema into November curve receipt.
• Ignoring discovery label shift when fest stickers drop.
• Setting post_october_uninstall_curve_ok before analytics T6 GREEN.

Enterprise notes

• Diligence: Curve class + scope table satisfy partner questions without fake metrics.
• Governance: REWRITE rows need owner + date before public store edit.
• Telemetry: Tag uninstall proxy notes consistently for quarterly review.

Key takeaways

1. D+7 uninstall curve needs G1–G6—not panic scope rewrite.
2. Keep/archive/rewrite filter separates scope lies from expected decay.
3. Pair analytics #2 for uninstall proxy lane—not invented %.
4. uninstall_curve_class_v1.json names expected_decay, scope_mismatch, stability_issue, or mixed.
5. post_october_uninstall_curve_ok feeds forward #12 capstone child crosswalk.
6. Crash recovery #4 must be GREEN before blaming stability on scope.
7. June aftermath is pre-October cousin—different receipt schema.
8. Discovery label shift is normal D+3…D+7—document in G4.
9. Forward #6 badge-strip is art pass—not uninstall curve fix.
10. After G1–G6 GREEN, run November badge-strip art pass #6 (Z1–Z6, capsule_badge_strip_ok) before winter HDR or November sprint store publish—460×215 squint test is separate from curve class.
11. Honest proxy notes beat fabricated uninstall rates in every receipt.

FAQ

Do we need exact uninstall percentages?

No—Steam does not provide indie-friendly public uninstall dashboards for all teams. Use proxy notes per analytics #2.

How is this different from the wishlist plateau playbook?

Plateau playbook owns wishlist flatline. This URL owns uninstall proxy curve + scope filter.

When should we REWRITE scope?

When G3 tags uninstall notes as scope and hour-one funnel does not match store copy—not when D+7 plateau is expected_decay.

Does retention challenge replace this?

No—R1–R5 is nightly accountability; this URL is D+7 trend class + scope table.

What about capstone #12?

Forward capstone indexes post_october_uninstall_curve_ok in child_receipts[]—file G5 before Friday go/no-go.

Related reads

• 14 Free Post-October Fest Steam Analytics Refund and Demo Uninstall Tools
• 5-Night Post-October Fest Demo Retention Response Challenge
• We Recovered Steam Demo Crash Rate Spike After October Fest
• June 2026 Next Fest Aftermath Trend Playbook
• Post-Next-Fest Wishlist Plateau Diagnostic Playbook
• November Store Capsule Badge-Strip Pass — November cluster #6; Z1–Z6 strip fest overlays after G1–G6 GREEN
• Friday Post-October Fest First-Week Capstone — forward #12
• 25 Free Live-Ops Analytics Tools Indie Games 2026 Edition
• Official docs: Steamworks Marketing

Closing

November D+7 is when post-fest traffic stops looking like fest week—and when uninstall proxy notes tempt the team to rewrite a demo that only needs honest copy and a named curve class. Run gates G1–G6, file post_october_uninstall_curve_receipt_v1.json, and let post_october_uninstall_curve_ok mean you separated expected decay from scope lies—not that someone panicked at a plateau chart. When forward capstone reads one more green child receipt, November sprint starts from evidence, not from a mistaken belief that every uninstall spike means the game failed.